Elections Underway in the Netherlands as Surveys Point to Possible Repeat Win for Geert Wilders

Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though experts believe PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from government. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require several months, analysts suggest that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.