‘The Situation is Dire’: Conflict on Iran Tightens India's LPG Availability.

The shockwaves of a war being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now reaching India's kitchens.

As aerial attacks on Iran impede energy shipments through the key maritime chokepoint, stocks of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are shrinking across India, pushing restaurants to shorten food lists, reduce operating times and in some cases close completely.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing lines outside fuel suppliers across Indian cities and towns as worries over fuel supplies grow. Businesses appear the most affected: the sharpest squeeze is in commercial eateries.

"The state of affairs is alarming. Kitchen fuel simply is unavailable," says a spokesperson of the an industry group.

Most eateries run either on industrial fuel canisters or direct gas lines, and the scarcities are now being felt across the country. "Numerous restaurants have closed - some in the capital, many in the south. People are turning to coal and wood and electric cookers to keep food preparation going."

Regional Impact

In Mumbai, media reports say up to a 20% of eateries are already operating at reduced capacity as commercial LPG supplies dwindle. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some eateries say their gas stocks have dwindled with scarce alternatives. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and no food items - it is extremely difficult. Businesses are going to suffer," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are seeking alternatives. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are skipping midday meals and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are varying as supplies come and go. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers report a surge in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are selling out quickly.

Official Position

Yet, the officials maintains there is adequate supply.

India has more than a vast number of domestic LPG users and officials say supplies are being reallocated to households as tensions from the war in the Gulf ripple through energy markets.

Approximately six out of ten of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about 90% of those shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now largely blocked by the war.

The oil ministry says that it ordered refineries to boost LPG output for home needs, lifting domestic production by about a quarter. Business-grade fuel is being reserved for critical services such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"Unnecessary hoarding and hoarding has been caused by misinformation. The standard supply timeline for home fuel remains about 60 hours," says a government spokesperson.

Widening Concern

Now the anxiety is extending beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of scooters outside a petrol pump. "Anxiety is palpable," the text reads.

According to data from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be premature.

India imports 90% of its petroleum. Around half of its crude oil imports - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the shortfall could be partly made up by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a sector expert.

Based on maritime intelligence and expert analysis, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, lessening India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The key weakness is cooking gas, commentators observe.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through Hormuz.

Refineries can adjust processes to produce a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only increase domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be partially mitigated through varied suppliers. Processed petroleum stocks remains fairly adequate. LPG availability is the critical issue to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the panic on the ground is not just scarcity but patchy deliveries - and the familiar spectre of stockpiling.

An industry representative claims price gouging.

"Retailers are misusing the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's energy imports may be buffered by worldwide shipping. But in homes across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next cylinder.