The Unsuccessful Bid to Host UN Climate Summit Appears Chaotic – But It May In Fact Be the Best Result Achievable

Well. On one hand, the nation's long-running campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to put on the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted tens of thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

That's not happening. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a major let down to many people who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures truly desired the bid to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. This framework is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

However, exceptionally, Ankara declined to withdraw. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as close to the Russian leader. Several nations feared a summit obstructed from the leadership if his administration led the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to host an underprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but multilateral action has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to lead discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", experts from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society is essential at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the federal administration do to stop a restriction on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal appearing as the best chance possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.