Why Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Putin Concerning Ukraine

Reports of an impending US-Russia leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.

Just days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.

A preliminary meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.

"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump informed reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."

• Donald Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks postponed
• Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed

The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest development in Trump's efforts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.

During a speech in the North African country last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.

"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.

Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing several years.

Reduced Influence

Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a deal was Israel's move to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave the president leverage to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.

The US president benefited from a long record of supporting Israel since his first term, encompassing his decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, actually, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.

Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the global economy and intensify the conflict.

At the same time, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the country - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.

The president often boasts about his ability to meet and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the hostilities any nearer a resolution.

Putin may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.

In July, Russia's leader consented to a summit in Alaska just as it appeared likely that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently put on hold.

Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia called Trump who then promoted the possible meeting in Budapest.

The next day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.

The US leader maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"You know, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he said.

However the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.

"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he said.

Thus, in a short period, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – including land Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has finally settled on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail last year, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, admitting that concluding the war is proving more difficult than he anticipated.

It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when both parties wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.